Severe heatwaves in urban areas significantly threaten public health, calling for establishing early warning strategies. Despite predicting occurrence of heatwaves and attributing historical mortality, predicting an incoming deadly heatwave remains a challenge due to the difficulty in defining and estimating heat-related mortality. Furthermore, establishing an early warning system imposes additional requirements, including data availability, spatial and temporal robustness, and decision costs. To address these challenges, we propose DeepTherm, a modular early warning system for deadly heatwave prediction without requiring heat-related mortality history. By highlighting the flexibility of deep learning, DeepTherm employs a dual-prediction pipeline, disentangling baseline mortality in the absence of heatwaves and other irregular events from all-cause mortality. We evaluated DeepTherm on real-world data across Spain. Results demonstrate consistent, robust, and accurate performance across diverse regions, time periods, and population groups while allowing trade-off between missed alarms and false alarms.

In the intensive care unit, the underlying causes of critical illness vary substantially across diagnoses, yet prediction models accounting for diagnostic heterogeneity have not been systematically studied. To address the gap, we evaluate transfer learning approaches for diagnosis-specific mortality prediction and apply both GLM- and XGBoost-based models to the eICU Collaborative Research Database. Our results demonstrate that transfer learning consistently outperforms models trained only on diagnosis-specific data and those using a well-known ICU severity-of-illness score, i.e., APACHE IVa, alone, while also achieving better calibration than models trained on the pooled data. Our findings also suggest that the Youden cutoff is a more appropriate decision threshold than the conventional 0.5 for binary outcomes, and that transfer learning maintains consistently high predictive performance across various cutoff criteria.

Early identification of intensive care patients at risk of in-hospital mortality enables timely intervention and efficient resource allocation. Despite high predictive performance, existing machine learning approaches lack transparency and robustness, limiting clinical adoption. We present a lightweight, transparent multimodal ensemble that fuses physiological time-series measurements with unstructured clinical notes from the first 48 hours of an ICU stay. A logistic regression model combines predictions from two modality-specific models: a bidirectional LSTM for vitals and a finetuned ClinicalModernBERT transformer for notes. This traceable architecture allows for multilevel interpretability: feature attributions within each modality and direct per-case modality attributions quantifying how vitals and notes influence each decision. On the MIMIC-III benchmark, our late-fusion ensemble improves discrimination over the best single model (AUPRC 0.565 vs. 0.526; AUROC 0.891 vs. 0.876) while maintaining well-calibrated predictions. The system remains robust through a calibrated fallback when a modality is missing. These results demonstrate competitive performance with reliable, auditable risk estimates and transparent, predictable operation, which together are crucial for clinical use.

Clinical time series data are critical for patient monitoring and predictive modeling. These time series are typically multivariate and often comprise hundreds of heterogeneous features from different data sources. The grouping of features based on similarity and relevance to the prediction task has been shown to enhance the performance of deep learning architectures. However, defining these groups a priori using only semantic knowledge is challenging, even for domain experts. To address this, we propose a novel method that learns feature groups by clustering weights of feature-wise embedding layers. This approach seamlessly integrates into standard supervised training and discovers the groups that directly improve downstream performance on clinically relevant tasks. We demonstrate that our method outperforms static clustering approaches on synthetic data and achieves performance comparable to expert-defined groups on real-world medical data. Moreover, the learned feature groups are clinically interpretable, enabling data-driven discovery of task-relevant relationships between variables.

We introduce GMAN, a flexible, interpretable, and expressive framework that extends Graph Neural Additive Networks (GNANs) to learn from sets of sparse time-series data. GMAN represents each time-dependent trajectory as a directed graph and applies an enriched, more expressive GNAN to each graph. It allows users to control the interpretability-expressivity trade-off by grouping features and graphs to encode priors, and it provides feature, node, and graph-level interpretability. On real-world datasets, including mortality prediction from blood tests and fake-news detection, GMAN outperforms strong non-interpretable black-box baselines while delivering actionable, domain-aligned explanations.

Accurate early prediction of in-hospital mortality in intensive care units (ICUs) is essential for timely clinical intervention and efficient resource allocation. This study develops and evaluates machine learning models that integrate both structured clinical data and unstructured textual information, specifically discharge summaries and radiology reports, from the MIMIC-IV database. We used LASSO and XGBoost for feature selection, followed by a multivariate logistic regression trained on the top features identified by both models. Incorporating textual features using TF-IDF and BERT embeddings significantly improved predictive performance. The final logistic regression model, which combined structured and textual input, achieved an AUC of 0.918, compared to 0.753 when using structured data alone, a relative improvement 22%. The analysis of the decision curve demonstrated a superior standardized net benefit in a wide range of threshold probabilities (0.2-0.8), confirming the clinical utility of the model. These results underscore the added prognostic value of unstructured clinical notes and support their integration into interpretable feature-driven risk prediction models for ICU patients.

NAMs (like all GAMs), are not causal models. Although the shape plots can be informative, and can help uncover problems with the data that might need correction before deploying the models, the plots do not tell us why the model learned what it did, or what the impact of intervention ( e.g.,

The intensive care unit (ICU) manages critically ill patients, many of whom face a high risk of mortality. Early and accurate prediction of in-hospital mortality within the first 24 hours of ICU admission is crucial for timely clinical interventions, resource optimization, and improved patient outcomes. Traditional scoring systems, while useful, often have limitations in predictive accuracy and adaptability. Objective: This review aims to systematically evaluate and benchmark innovative methodologies that leverage data available within the first day of ICU admission for predicting in-hospital mortality. We focus on advancements in machine learning, novel biomarker applications, and the integration of diverse data types.

Healthcare systems generate diverse multimodal data, including Electronic Health Records (EHR), clinical notes, and medical images. Effectively leveraging this data for clinical prediction is challenging, particularly as real-world samples often present with varied or incomplete modalities. Existing approaches typically require complete modality data or rely on manual selection strategies, limiting their applicability in real-world clinical settings where data availability varies across patients and institutions. To address these limitations, we propose MoE-Health, a novel Mixture of Experts framework designed for robust multimodal fusion in healthcare prediction. MoE-Health architecture is specifically developed to handle samples with differing modalities and improve performance on critical clinical tasks. By leveraging specialized expert networks and a dynamic gating mechanism, our approach dynamically selects and combines relevant experts based on available data modalities, enabling flexible adaptation to varying data availability scenarios. We evaluate MoE-Health on the MIMIC-IV dataset across three critical clinical prediction tasks: in-hospital mortality prediction, long length of stay, and hospital readmission prediction. Experimental results demonstrate that MoE-Health achieves superior performance compared to existing multimodal fusion methods while maintaining robustness across different modality availability patterns. The framework effectively integrates multimodal information, offering improved predictive performance and robustness in handling heterogeneous and incomplete healthcare data, making it particularly suitable for deployment in diverse healthcare environments with heterogeneous data availability.